Vision 2052
1972 the Club of Rome published its first report, The Limits of Growth. Computer models were used to analyze the consequences of exponential economic and population growth in a world with finite resources. It warned that if growth continued unchecked, the world could face severe resource depletion, environmental degradation, and economic collapse within the 21st century—potentially around the mid-to-late 21st century. The study emphasized the need for sustainable policies to avoid crises and ensure long-term stability.
A Global Forecast
2012, Jørgen Randers, as one of the co-authors of the first report, published 2052 – A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years as a report to the Club of Rome commemorating the 40th anniversary of The Limits of Growth. He called the forecast for 2052 an “educated guess”, and in brief his key predictions for 2025 can be summarized as follows:
Slower Economic Growth
- Global GDP will grow more slowly than in previous decades, particularly due to declining productivity growth and increasing societal aging.
- China will dominate the global economy, while the U.S. and Europe will stagnate.
Climate Change and Environmental Degradation
- Greenhouse gas emissions will peak around 2030 but decline too late to prevent severe climate impacts.
- The world will experience significant temperature rises, extreme weather events, and regional climate disasters.
- Food production will suffer, particularly in developing regions.
Continued Population Growth, but Slower
- The global population will peak below 9 billion, mainly due to lower birth rates in developed nations.
- Aging populations in many countries will create economic and social challenges.
Inequality and Social Tensions
- The gap between rich and poor will persist or worsen, leading to social unrest in some regions.
- The world’s poorest populations will suffer the most from climate change and resource scarcity.
Technology and Renewable Energy Progress
- While renewable energy adoption will grow, it won’t be fast enough to replace fossil fuels by 2052 fully.
- Advances in technology and efficiency will help, but not enough to prevent environmental damage.
Failure of Political Systems to Take Rapid Action
- Governments will slowly address climate change and sustainability issues, acting only after crises occur.
- Short-term political cycles and corporate influence will hinder proactive policies.
Specifically on Biodiversity Randers predicts for 2052
- Continued Decline in Biodiversity: Despite some conservation efforts, global biodiversity will decline significantly due to deforestation, pollution, and climate change.
- Mass Extinctions: Many species, especially in fragile ecosystems like tropical rainforests and coral reefs, will disappear due to habitat loss and rising temperatures.
- Limited Policy Impact: Governments and corporations will act too slowly to prevent biodiversity loss, prioritizing economic growth over conservation.
- Agricultural Expansion vs. Wildlands: Demand for food and resources will continue to put pressure on forests and natural habitats, leading to ecosystem fragmentation.
Randers paints a pessimistic but not apocalyptic future—humanity will survive, but in a more constrained, environmentally stressed, and economically unequal world. The worst-case climate scenarios might be avoided, but the world will still face serious environmental and social challenges.
On top of the preface of his book, Jørgen Randers puts out the following quote from Vaclav Havel, who was once asked whether being an optimist:
“No, I am not an optimist in the sense that I believe that everything will go well. But neither am I a pessimist in the sense that I believe everything will go wrong. I am hopeful. For without hope, there will be no progress. Hope is as important as life itself.”
This statement can be already a reason for my own vision and why calling my little conservation company VISION 52. In addition, Jørgen Randers wrote himself about his worring about the future and why he wrote his book:
“First the forecast will enable you to give your own answer to whether there is reason to worry.” And (the book should be) “…partly an attempt to kick society into action”.
Therefore: let’s look into the world, where there are positive signs or good reasons to count on positive surprises. One of the most hopeful initiatives and surprises of the global community in recent times was the establishment of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (“SDGs”). These goals were jointly agreed by more than 190 countries in 2015.
Never before have almost all countries of the world agreed to jointly pursue such concrete and crucial goals for a liveable future for the planet. This is especially true for the measurable 169 sub-goals of the 17 SDGs. One of the most important of these sub-goals for nature conservation has now been redefined as a new „30 x 30 target“: To place at least 30 percent of global marine and terrestrial habitats under nature conservation by 2030 for a biodiverse future. 30 x 30 for our world nature is at least as important as the 1.5-degree target for the world climate
Let’s start first by sharing the vision for 2030 and find out what any individual, organization, company, or government can contribute to reaching the commonly agreed 30 x 30 target.